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OVERVIEW


What is it?

As a key instrument for conflict prevention, the EU engages in conflict analysis as a means to arrive at a shared understanding of conflict risks in a country or a region. Conflict analysis involving staff from different EU institutions dealing with external relations enables formulating and implementing more efficient and conflict sensitive EU external engagement.

Conflict analysis is a structured analytical process that provides insight into the risks of violent conflict in a specific area, country or region. It explores the root causes of conflict or instability and potential triggers; maps key stakeholders involved in conflict, violence, peacebuilding and resilience; addresses conflict-sensitivity considerations in the context of development or other EU engagement; and identifies opportunities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding.
It is designed to inform the interventions of all EU actors, in line with the EU's Integrated Approach to Conflict and Crises and the 2017 Joint Communication on Resilience. Accordingly, it should be developed as a shared, joint analysis among all EU services to support the work of EU Delegations.


What can it be used for?


Joint conflict analysis by EU actors, and where appropriate other partners, can serve to:

  • foster a joint understanding of the conflict landscape, the risks and opportunities,
  • shape EU conflict prevention and resolution efforts,
  • ensure effective and conflict-sensitive engagement in countries at risk of violent conflict,
  • enhance coherence and coordination in accordance with the integrated approach to conflict and crises,
  • inform analytical processes and guide policy or programming choices, as well as political decision-making,
  • support conflict sensitivity across all interventions, irrespective of sector, type, or objective, including peacebuilding initiatives.

Between 2020 and 2025, INTPA.G5 has coordinated approximately 60 EU conflict analyses in fragile and conflict-affected countries to support the programming cycle of NDICI – Global Europe, in close collaboration with the EEAS and EU Delegations.




When can it be used?

Ideally, conflict analysis should be conducted at the outset of the programming and/or design phase to shape conflict-sensitive external action and development interventions. However, it can also be used throughout various phases of the intervention cycle to achieve different objectives or adapt to contextual shifts.


An EU-led conflict analysis can also inform other analytical exercises, policy processes, and programme design, implementation and monitoring. For instance, it may follow the selection and prioritisation of a country for the EU Conflict Early Warning System (EWS), providing a more in-depth understanding of conflict dynamics in countries deemed at risk.

It may also support development programming at various stages, the planning and strategic review of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions, or the integration of conflict sensitivity into the Humanitarian-Development-Peace (HDP) Nexus, resilience analysis and in the context of the 360° approach supporting Global Gateway investments. Gender and climate/environment-sensitive perspectives should be integrated as systematically as possible.


Conflict analysis has also served as a foundation for joint programming—particularly in fragile contexts—and can contribute to shaping EU human rights and democracy strategies, civil society roadmaps, support for human rights defenders, transitional justice efforts, engagement in women, youth, climate/environment, peace and security issues, as well as conflicts related to natural resources (most notably water and land), and critical raw material (CRM)-related dynamics.



Who can use it?

  • All EU services at Headquarters and at EU Delegation levels.


What are its strengths?

  • Allows for a great degree of flexibility, enabling the analysis to be adjusted to the specific purposes, needs and resources available.
  • Can open spaces for dialogue and policy coherence, generally through its support by an in-country workshop (in situations where it is safe to do so and in order to ensure EU Delegation participation).
  • Can help ensure that an intervention's logic and related theory of change are conflict sensitive.
  • Can help ensure gender, climate/environment conflict sensitivity so as to limit adverse impacts i.a. on women, children, youth, indigenous peoples and other communities in vulnerable, marginalised or climate-pressured situations.


What are its limitations?

  • Relatively resource intensive, especially in terms of its preparation and coordination (mostly for Headquarters).
  • The EU Delegation needs to take the lead in determining the degree and appropriateness of in-country involvement in the analysis by EU Member States, other international donors and civil society.
  • Given its sensitive nature, the whole exercise remains confidential, limiting the sharing of information and documentation to few colleagues concerned, and refraining publicity and increasing visibility around it.
  • Requires commitment and senior management buy-in on the part of all EU participating actors to ensure follow-up and monitoring of implementation of key recommendations and priorities for action.
  • Needs regular updating.



PRACTICAL APPLICATION

Key elements

While the methodology is flexible and can be complemented by specific conflict-sensitivity assessments, it generally covers the following:

  • Drivers of conflict, including deep-rooted structural causes, immediate triggers that could escalate violence, and patterns of resilience or local capacities for peace,
  • Stakeholder mapping, identifying parties to the conflict, those affected, and others with interests in the conflict,
  • Future scenarios, outlining best- and worst-case trajectories in terms of the conflict's scope or impact, with an assessment of likelihood,
  • Ongoing engagements, mapping past and present peacebuilding, prevention and stabilisation initiatives by the EU, international organisations, civil society, and authorities,
  • Actionable recommendations, offering concrete, short- and long-term measures for conflict-sensitive EU engagement, prevention and peacebuilding,
  • Implementation and monitoring, clarifying responsibilities, which should be agreed upon during workshops and followed up appropriately.

The outputs of a conflict analysis typically include: a desk-based literature review; reports from in-country workshops; summaries of relevant stakeholder meetings; and a final report detailing the process and proposing recommendations which is presented to Member States in the relevant geographic Council Working Party.


Requirements

Data/information. The tool relies on a broad mix of data and information gathered from a literature review (of EU internal documents, government and non-governmental/international non-governmental organisation reports and assessments, academic studies, reports from key peacebuilding organisations, etc.).

Time. The time frame is closely linked to the objectives, scope and context of the conflict analysis, and the terms of reference. A conflict analysis is a flexible tool that can be adapted to a sector, region or thematic approach (gender, elections, climate/environment, etc.). In a crisis setting, it may take longer to conduct because of safety and security concerns, or may need to be adapted, in terms of data collection/literature review.

Skills. The analysis is normally conducted through a facilitated discussion involving all relevant EU staff from all services – Headquarters and Delegations with various degrees of thematic and geographical knowledge. External experts may have added value and can provide support throughout the process or during specific steps (e.g. literature review, facilitation, report writing).

 Facilities and materials. Coordination between different EU actors and Delegations is essential – e.g. in organising the inter-service mission and/or workshops in Brussels, selecting and hiring expert(s), and selecting venues for workshop(s).

Financial costs and sources. Context and scope of the analysis. Budget considerations should include the costs of hiring one or more experts, staff time (and mission budget) to participate in workshop(s) and validate reports, and for other potential logistics (workshop venue), etc.
EU services might need to share responsibilities for these costs, possibly through their own facilities which allow for selecting and hiring experts with a combined thematic and geographic expertise (knowledge of conflict analysis, conflict sensitivity and knowledge of the country).

Tips and tricks.

  • Conflict analysis is applicable across all contexts and is particularly valuable in crisis settings.
  • Joint implementation promotes ownership, particularly among EU Delegations.
  • Engage multi-sectoral expertise where appropriate.
  • Leverage the comparative advantages of conflict analysis to support wider interventions (e.g. programme design, joint programming, Humanitarian-Development-Peace nexus, risk management, Mid-Term Reviews (MTRs), Early Warning System (EWS) follow-up, etc.).
  • Timing is crucial—stakeholders may be more receptive to resilience-building efforts in post-crisis settings or during new programme design phases.
  • Consider opportunities to mobilise new funding or reallocate existing resources to strengthen peacebuilding and conflict prevention efforts or support new thematic focal areas.



EU RESOURCES

  EU Learn   Fragility and Conflict Sensitivity trainings  
   The European Commission (EC), Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI): RPBA and PDNA Resources


OTHER RESOURCES



For further information, any revision or comment, please contact INTPA-ICM-GUIDE@ec.europa.eu
Published by INTPA.D.4 - Quality and results, evaluation, knowledge management. Last update  July 2025